Track record
We publish a crowd forecast for every hill town before each weekend. After a big one, we put that forecast next to what the news reported — including the places where we were wrong.
Our forecast below is exactly as we published it on 10 October 2026 — a week before. Tally: 13 not verified.
We searched English and Hindi news for 16–21 October and found no report of jams in any town we track (for 2–4 October we found several). Our own road-speed reading showed traffic at Shimla's Victory Tunnel moving at 59% of its normal speed at 6:33 pm on Saturday 17 October — its slowest reading up to then — and Manali's approach at 74%; the other readings we checked, for 17 and 18 October, were normal. Travellers sent three reports: Nainital calm, Dharamshala busy, Manali calm. One reading or one report is not enough to call a verdict either way, so every town is marked not verified.
Our forecast below is exactly as we published it on 25 September 2026 — a week before. Tally: 4 right · 2 under-warned · 7 not verified.
Where we were wrong: Shimla and Rishikesh. We rated them below "Avoid" and the reports say they jammed for hours. Telling you a place is easier than it turns out to be is the worse kind of mistake, so both are logged for the next recalibration of those scores.
What we changed: On 27 October 2026 we recalibrated both towns. Their approach roads jam more easily than we had assumed, so a festival weekend now reads 9/10 Avoid for Shimla and for Rishikesh.